Sadly I worry that a lot of people will be running scared of making predictions for 2009 following one of the worst financial years in history. Where is there left to go? And if the latest press release from Saxo Bank is anything to go by, I'm not surprised!

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Claims for 2009:

1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.
2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.
3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.
4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM completely.
5) The AUDJPY will drop to 40. The decline in the commodities markets will affect the Australian economy.
6) EURUSD will fall to 0.95 and then go to 1.30 as European bank balances are under tremendous pressure because of exposure to the faltering Eastern European markets and intra-European economic tensions.
7) Chinese GDP growth drops to zero. The export driven sectors in the Chinese economy will be hurt significantly by the free-fall economic activity in the Global Trade and especially of the US.
8) Pre-In's First Out. Several of the Eastern European currencies currently pegged or semi-pegged to the EUR will be under increasing pressure due to capital outflows in 2009.
9) Reuters/ Jefferies CRB Index to drop to 30% to 150. The Commodity bubble is bursting, with speculative excesses so large they have skewed the demand and supply statistics.
10) 2009 will see the first Asian currencies to be pegged to CNY. Asian economies will increasingly look towards China to find new trade partners and scale down their hitherto US-centric agenda.

http://www.saxobank.ch/en/node/761265

Some other interesting predictions here:

http://fnc0486.wordpress.com/2009/01/15/five-banking-sector-predictions-for-2009/

A notable suggestion is that a global regulatory body is likely to be formed. Given the difficulties of creating effective regulations in even one market, I'll believe that one when I see it.

On the contrary, I think we should be disheartened. The financial industry is in tatters, and who knows where it will end?

I agree with Nirpal. With even further redundancies predicted across an ever growing number of verticals, 2009 is looking more bleak than ever.

I'm just glad I got out of financial services when I did.

I wasn't trying to say we should be anything but disheartened, but that making predictions this year is going to be impossible. As Mr Thomas cites, we've learnt to expect the unexpected, and I see no way how that can change in the coming year.

Paul, you were lucky. I have a lot of good friends who have lost their jobs recently. What industry did you move into?

I didn't move into any industry. I'm now happily retired.

I agree that the financial sector is in tatters. But the question is - how low can it go? Everyday there are announcements about yet another financial institution on the verge of collapse of making mass job cuts. It's a very alarming situation and begs the question, why didn't any financial analysts or economists see this coming and press the alarm button earlier. or perhaps they did and their warnings weren't heeded. After all, as well all know, love - of money - is blind.

I agree Hilary. With today's breaking news of the Citigroup split, the only certainty of 2009 is uncertainty.